A Disorganized Tropical Storm Erika Drenching the Lesser Antilles

Erika is a poorly organized tropical storm, and NASA satellite imagery has confirmed that for the National Hurricane Center.

Despite poor organization, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are a threat to the Lesser Antilles, and later the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Currently, a Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect for Dominica, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius.

Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the central and Northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches possible.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured Erika on September 3 at 1:41 a.m. EDT. Erika’s clouds appear as a rounded area that cover the Leeward Islands today. The tropical storm force winds were from thunderstorms located mostly to the east of her center. Her center has elongated and her minimum central pressure has risen, both signs of further weakening.

At 8 a.m. EDT today, September 3, Erika’s maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph. Her center was located 100 miles east-southeast of St. Croix, near 16.9 north and 63.5 west. Erika is moving north-northwest near 8 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is now up to 1010 millibars, indicating a weakened storm.

The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes Erika north of the Dominican Republic and toward the Bahamas late in the weekend.

Jimena is now a tropical storm over the central Baja Peninsula. NASA’s Aqua and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites caught perfect images of Jimena’s clouds and rainfall over the last 24 hours before and after she made landfall and weakened to a tropical storm. Aqua caught Jimena’s center in the middle of the southern Baja California peninsula, while TRMM noticed areas of heavy rain in her center just before she made landfall yesterday.

The MODIS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a view of Hurricane Jimena on September 2 at 4:55 p.m. EDT when her center was directly over the southern tip of Baja California. It showed an eye obscured by cloud cover, indicating that the storm had weakened after making landfall. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument also on Aqua captured Jimena on September 3 at 4:53 a.m. EDT. The image showed Jimena’s clouds mostly in the Gulf of California. The center of circulation is still over land, although most of the cloud cover is east of the center.

The TRMM satellite passed almost directly over Hurricane Jimena again on September 1 at 7:41 p.m. EDT (2341 UTC) creating the data used to make a TRMM rainfall analysis image. Jimena had weakened to a category 3 hurricane with wind speeds of about 105 knots (~132.25 mph) by that time. Very heavy rainfall is shown by the TRMM rainfall analysis north of Jimena’s eye. The National Hurricane Center noted that “Jimena is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over portions of western Mexico and 1 to 2 inches over the central portion of the Baja Peninsula during the next day or so. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 15 inches are possible in association with Jimena.” TRMM data will be used to confirm these estimates.

At 8 a.m. EDT today, September 3, Jimena’s maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. Her center was located 45 miles south-southwest of Santa Rosalia, Mexico, near 27.9 north and 112.6 west. Jimena is moving north-northwest near 5 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is now up to 1001 millibars, indicating a weakened storm.

Jimena’s slow movement is still causing higher than normal tide levels with large and dangerous battering waves along portions of the coast of the central Baja Peninsula and northwestern mainland Mexico. Those conditions will gradually subside during the next day or two.

Jimena’s track over the next couple of days now takes her to the west central part of the Baja Peninsula, per the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. She will continue slowly weakening while moving toward the north-northwest. Jimena may cause flooding as it produces heavy rainfall over the southern Baha Peninsula and western Mexico in the next couple days.