Due to advances in numerical weather prediction computer models, forecasting the initial development of tropical cyclones has improved greatly in recent years.

There are certain areas over the oceans that are particularly favourable for tropical cyclone development, but it is usually certain characteristics in a cluster of thunderclouds that leads forecasters to recognise them as tropical depressions.

This is done by people at specialist tropical cyclone forecasting centres around the globe such as the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida who are constantly studying satellite images, instruments and other weather data to detect and track them through their life-cycle. Once detected, their track is forecast using a combination of numerical forecasting models, synoptic forecasting and statistical methods, which have been developed from the study of the behaviour of past storms.

Observations from ships at sea are always very useful, although, once the existence of a storm and its forecast track have been broadcast, ships tend to move out of their way! Reinforced aircraft, fitted with instruments, fly through and over tropical cyclones, and weather radar can locate storms within 200 miles of the radar station. In addition, tropical cyclones are tracked by satellites, which provide very useful information both to forecasters and numerical forecast models.

“Official” responsibility for forecasting tropical cyclones in the areas affected lies with the regional centres such as the National Hurricane Center in Miami. However, the Met Office does produce tropical cyclone forecasts from its global model, which are disseminated to the regional centres.

They then use these forecasts, along with other forms of guidance, to produce their forecasts. Met Office forecasts of tropical cyclones show considerable skill and are among the best models available to agencies such as the National Hurricane Center.

In the tropics there is a broad zone of low pressure which stretches either side of the equator. The winds on the north side of this zone blow from the north-east (the North-east Trades) and on the southern side blow from the south-east (South-east Trades).

Within this area of low pressure the air is heated over the warm tropical ocean. This air rises in discrete parcels, causing thundery showers to form. These showers usually come and go, but from time to time, they group together into large clusters of thunderstorms. This creates a flow of very warm, moist, rapidly rising air, leading to the development of a centre of low pressure, or depression, at the surface.

There are various trigger mechanisms required to transform these cloud clusters into a tropical cyclone. These trigger mechanisms depend on several conditions being ‘right’ at the same time. The most influential factors are:

1. a source of warm, moist air derived from tropical oceans with sea surface temperatures normally in the region of, or in excess, of 27 °C;
2. winds near the ocean surface blowing from different directions converging and causing air to rise and storm clouds to form;
3. winds which do not vary greatly with height - known as low wind shear. This allows the storm clouds to rise vertically to high levels;
4. sufficient distance from the equator to provide spin or twist.

The Coriolis force caused by the rotation of the Earth helps the spin of this column of rising air. The development of the surface depression causes an increase in the strength of the Trade Winds. The spiralling winds accelerate inwards and upwards, releasing heat and moisture as they do so.

As the depression strengthens it becomes tropical storm and then a hurricane or typhoon. A mature hurricane or typhoon takes the form of a cylinder of deep thundercloud around a centre that is relatively free from clouds. There is a relatively small area of intense horizontal winds at the surface, often well over 100 m.p.h., while air rises strongly above, maintaining the deep cumulonimbus clouds.

Further aloft at about six miles, the cloud tops are carried outwards to give thick layer clouds due to the outward-spiralling winds leaving the tropical cyclone core. At the centre of the tropical cyclone, air is subsiding, which makes it dry and often cloud free, and there is little or no wind at the surface. This is called the eye of the storm.
Structure of a tropical cyclone