Tropical Storm Olaf Born, Headed to Baja California

In less than 24 hours, the eighteenth tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific strengthened into Tropical Storm Olaf.

The latest satellite imagery from GOES-11, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite at 9 a.m. EDT, October 2, 2009, shows Olaf’s clouds reaching over the southern tip of Baja California. That’s just a hint of what he’s going to do this weekend, according to forecasters. Olaf is expected to turn toward the northeast over the weekend and make landfall in the central region of Baja California.

GOES-11 is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and images are created by NASA’s GOES Project, located at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

At 5 a.m. EDT on October 2, however, Tropical Storm Olaf was about 490 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, near latitude 22.0 North and longitude 117.5 West. Olaf’s maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph, and they are not expected to change much until Olaf makes landfall early Sunday, October 4. At present, Olaf is moving north near 12 mph, but is expected to turn northeast in the next day or two.

Olaf is a good-sized storm, as tropical storm-force winds extend up to 115 miles out from the center. His minimum central pressure is 1000 millibars.

Some good news for residents of Baja California about Olaf’s winds, is that there’s only a small window of opportunity for the storm to strengthen further. Wind shear is going to increase over the next day, and they can tear a storm apart. In addition, Olaf is working his way into cooler sea surface temperatures (waters need to be at least 80°F to sustain a tropical cyclone’s strength), which will also help weaken Olaf in the next two days as he heads for a landfall.

Residents of Baja California should be preparing for Olaf this weekend, and be on the watch for heavy rainfall and gusty winds

Melor has become a Super Typhoon with sustained winds near 130 mph, and is crossing Guam and its islands this weekend. Warnings and watches are already up for the region.

A typhoon warning is in force for Saipan and Tinian. A typhoon watch is in force for Rota and Agrihan, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Guam, Rota and Agrihan, meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours.

NASA’s Aqua satellite flew over Super Typhoon Melor on October 1 at 15:59 UTC (1:59 a.m. Guam local time), and captured in infrared image of the storm’s clouds using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument. AIRS takes the temperature of the storm’s highest, cold clouds and revealed very high, powerful thunderstorms. Those cloud tops were as cold as or colder than 220 degrees Kelvin or minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (F). The colder the clouds are, the higher they are, and the more powerful the thunderstorms are that make up the tropical storm.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Guam issued a special statement about Super Typhoon Melor, and warned residents not to focus on where Melor’s center is located, because the storm is very large and dangerous winds extend far from the center. The NWS statement reads “Islands hundreds of miles from the typhoon eye will experience tropical storm-force winds. Melor is expected to intensify and move toward the Marianas. The onset of damaging winds is expected in the northern Marianas after Midnight tonight (local time).” For updated information: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/localHazards.php.

How far do Melor’s winds extend? Tropical storm-force winds of (39 mph) 34 knots or higher occur within 185 to 225 miles of the center, while typhoon (hurricane)-force winds of (73 mph) 64 knots or higher occur within 60 miles of the center.

The National Weather Service forecast for Guam, specifically where Andersen Air Force Base is located is as follows: Today (Saturday, October 2)…Damaging winds. Northwest winds 25 to 30 mph shifting to the west 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning…then numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Tonight (Saturday Night…Damaging winds. Southwest winds 35 to 45 mph. Cloudy with numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Super Typhoon Melor had maximum sustained winds near 132 mph (115 knots) on October 2 at 1500 UTC (at 1 a.m. Saturday, October 2). It was located 305 miles east-northeast of Saipan, near 15.0 North and 149.9 East. Melor is moving northwest near 9 mph and is creating 29-foot high waves.