Typhoon Lupit is closing in on northern Luzon, the Philippines, and its center is expected to make a short landfall (of about 24 hours) there October 22 before heading into the South China Sea. However, the storm is large and is expected to bring heavy rains and more flooding problems.

Forecasters at the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted “As the system moves away from the cooler dry air into a warmer pool of water, it is expected to intensify slightly before making landfall into Luzon.” Landfall for the storm’s eye is forecast around 8 p.m. local (Asia/Manila) time on October 22, which would be around 8 a.m. EDT.

As of 11 a.m. EDT (11 p.m. Asia/Manila Time) on October 20 Lupit had maximum sustained winds near 85 knots. It was located about 560 miles northeast of Manila, near 20.5 North and 128.9 East. It was moving west near 9 mph. Lupit, called “Ramil” in the Philippines, is generating 33 foot-high waves in the open ocean.

NASA’s Aqua satellite flew over Lupit, and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on Aqua captured infrared, visible and microwave imagery of the typhoon. Infrared imagery measures temperatures and not only can it see cold, high cloud tops in tropical cyclones, but also the warm ocean waters that power the cyclones. Cold cloud top temperatures provide clues about the power of the thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone. The colder the clouds are, the higher they are, and the more powerful the thunderstorms. Lupit’s cloud temperatures were colder than minus 63 Fahrenheit, indicating very cold, high, strong thunderstorms, especially around its center of circulation.

AIRS data was coupled with data from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) that flies with AIRS on Aqua to create a microwave image. The AMSU image uses the radiances of the 89 GHz channel, and the cold areas in those images indicate where there is precipitation or ice in the cloud tops.

Warnings have already been posted in the Philippines. Public Storm Warning Signal 2 is in force in the following areas of Luzon: Batanes Group of Islands, Cagayan, Calayan Island, Babuyan Islands and Isabela. Public Storm Warning Signal 1 is in force in the following areas of Luzon: Ilocos Norte & Sur, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Benguet, La Union, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Northern Quezon and Polillo Island.

Residents in southern Baja California, Mexico still haven’t recovered from last month’s Hurricane Jimena, and Tropical Storm Rick is now bringing rains to southern tip of the Baja. The National Hurricane Center revised its forecast track at 11 a.m. EDT and it keeps Rick’s center over open waters with a landfall in western mainland Mexico.

The GOES-11 satellite (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) captured a visible image of Tropical Storm Rick on October 20 at 7:30 a.m. PDT (11:30 a.m. EDT), and it showed that the northern edge of Rick’s clouds were already over the southern Baja.

On October 20 at 10:50 a.m. EDT (7:50 PDT), the airport at San Jose del Cabo, Baja California, Mexico was reporting light rain, and light winds from the west at 2 mph.

A tropical storm warning in effect for southern Baja California, from Agua Blanca to Buena Vista including Cabo San Lucas. Tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for mainland Mexico from Roblito to Altata, and for southern Baja California from Buena Vista to La Paz. Tropical storm conditions are likely within 36 hours.

At 8 a.m. PDT (11 a.m. EDT) today, October 20, Tropical Storm Rick had maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. His center was 90 miles north of Socorro Island, and 200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Cabo San Lucas is the southern-most city on the Baja. Rick was located near latitude 20.1 north and longitude 110.8 west, and moving northeast near 7 mph. Minimum central pressure is estimated near 991 millibars.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center, so that’s why Cabo San Lucas had very light winds at 10:50 a.m. EDT. Rick’s center was too far away.

The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Rick’s center to pass near or to the south of the southern tip of Baja California tonight or early Wednesday, and approach the western coast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that heavy rainfall can be expected in extreme southern Baja California as Rick nears and passes, and in northwestern Mexico when Rick makes landfall. The latest NHC discussion reads, “Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches…with isolated amounts of 10 inches…are possible over extreme southern Baja California as well as the states of sinaloa and Durango in west-central Mexico during the next few days. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.”

Large ocean swells are already battering portions of the southern Baja coast and west-central coast of mainland Mexico and will continue over the next couple of days. In fact, Carnival Cruise Lines announced that they were diverting two cruise ships until Tropical Storm Rick has passed. In the state of Nayarit on the mainland, the port of San Blas was closed.

GOES-11 is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and images are created by NASA’s GOES Project, located at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

Rick is expected to make landfall in mainland Mexico during the day time on Wednesday, October 21.