Low 17P Has a Good Chance for Tropical Reformation This Weekend

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is the forecast center that issues advisories for tropical cyclones in the Southern Pacific Ocean, and they noted on February 26, “Available data does not justify issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warnings at this time” That may change over the weekend, as maximum sustained winds are near tropical depression strength, 34 mph (30 knots) and environmental factors are looking more favorably for further development.

17P’s center is near 16.3 degrees South latitude and 163.6 West longitude, that’s about 425 nautical miles east-southeast of Pago Pago. The system is crawling south-southwestward at 2 mph (2 knots).

Tropical Low 17P May Get a Second Chance

image of 17P’s clouds on Feb. 25 at 1622 UTC (11:22 a.m. ET), and the storm appears to be getting re-organized

Tropical cyclone 17P may be a low pressure area right now, but environmental conditions have become more favorable to give it a likely comeback as a tropical storm. Forecasters are using satellite imagery and observing various factors to see if 17P may be reborn.

When the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite known as GOES-11 flew over 17P’s center on Feb. 25 at 1622 UTC (11:22 a.m. ET), it captured in infrared image of its clouds. The satellite image showed that the storm appears to be getting re-organized, as seen in the circular shape of its clouds.

17P Now a Low with a Fair Chance for a Comeback

17P low on Feb. 24 at 0709 UTC (2:09 a.m. ET). The rainfall was scattered around the low’s center. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The small red area indicates heavy rainfall at almost 2 inches per hour.

Today, February 24, the low formerly known as 17P is centered near 13.1 degrees South latitude and 161.4 degrees West longitude, approximately 560 nautical miles east of Pago Pago.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, managed by NASA and the Japanese Space Agency flew over 17P’s low on Feb. 24 at 0709 UTC (2:09 a.m. ET). TRMM data showed that the rainfall was scattered around the low’s center at that time. Most of the rain was light to moderate, falling at rates between 20 and 40 millimeters (.78 to 1.57 inches) per hour. Later in the morning, the rainfall shifted mostly to the southwest of the center.

17P is Now a Fading Depression

17P on February 23 at 6:58 a.m. ET and the MODIS instrument captured in infrared image of the storm. It was difficult to find a center of the storm.

Tropical cyclone 17P has had a brief life. After becoming a tropical storm yesterday, atmospheric conditions have weakened the cyclone back down to tropical depression status today, February 23 and it is expected to dissipate in the next couple of days.

On February 22 at 6 p.m. ET (21 UTC), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued their final advisory on 17P. At that time, its maximum sustained winds were near 34 mph (30 knots) and it continued to weaken. It was still 615 nautical miles east-northeast of the island of Pago Pago, near 12.2 degrees South latitude and 160.8 West longitude.

On February 21, the seventeenth tropical depression formed in the South Pacific Ocean. Today, February 22, the storm has strengthened into Tropical Storm 17P (TS 17P) with maximum sustained winds near 39 mph, and it was about 740 miles east-northeast of Pago Pago.

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-11 captured a visible image of the storm at 1800 UTC (1 p.m. ET) February 22. The storm does not appear well organized. TD 17P was located near 9.6 South latitude and 159.0 East longitude, and was moving south-southwest near 4 mph (3 knots). TS 17P was creating 15 foot-high waves in open waters.

Although TS 17P is expected to continue tracking in open waters its winds and surf may impact some land areas. So, regional warnings have been posted for the Northern Cook Islands. Currently, a gale wind warning is in effect for Penrhyn and an alert is in effect for Rakahanga, Manihiki and nearby islands.