Having been hit by two tropical cyclones so far this season, Queensland had been the center of tropical cyclone activity, but with the recent arrival of Tropical Cyclone Paul, it is now the Northern Territory’s turn to experience heavy rains and gusty winds.

Paul originated from a low pressure circulation embedded within the monsoon trough over the Arufura Sea between the northern coast of Australia and New Guinea. As the circulation drifted southward towards northern Australia it intensified slowly and only became a Category 1 cyclone on the evening of March 28, 2010 (local time) when the center was right over the northeast coast of the Northern Territory where it brought wind gusts of up to 110 kph (~70 mph, equivalent to a tropical storm on the US Saffir-Simpson scale).

TRMM data was used to create a 3-D perspective of the storm from data from TRMM’s Precipitation Radar instrument. The most prominent feature is a deep convective tower, which penetrates up to 9 miles (15 km) high. This corresponds with an area of intense rain in the northwestern eyewall evident in the TRMM’s image of horizontal rainfall. These tall towers are associated with convective bursts and can be a sign of future strengthening as they indicate areas where heat, known as latent heat, is being released into the storm.

This heating is what drives the storm’s circulation. Despite Paul’s proximity to land, it was able to intensify into a Category 2 cyclone (equivalent to a minimal Category 1 hurricane) by the following morning with wind gusts of up to 140 kph (~85 mph). Paul is hovering over land along the coast and is expected to weaken slowly over the next day or so; however, it could eventually re-emerge over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria and re-intensify.

Warnings Up Tropical Storm Paul in Australia’s Northern Territory

Tropical Storm Paul formed over the weekend and is already close to a landfall. It is currently in the Blue Mud Bay along the western coastline of the Gulf of Carpentaria. NASA’s Aqua satellite watched the storm come together over the weekend in a series of infrared images that showed the storm’s rotation intensifying.

Currently, a Cyclone Warning is in effect for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt. A Cyclone Watch remains in effect for coastal and island communities west to Maningrida and south to Port McArthur.

Tropical cyclone Paul is drifting southwest Blue Mud Bay along the coastline of the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is expected to make landfall within 24 hours.

NASA’s Aqua satellite flew over Paul and captured several infrared images of the storm’s cloud temperatures from the time it formed through today. The images were captured from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument (AIRS) that flies on the Aqua satellite. The image from March 27 showed that the storm was still disorganized in the early morning hours (Eastern Daylight Time/U.S.). This infrared image from NASA’s AIRS instrument from March 29 at 12:11 a.m. EDT showed that Paul was a little more organized and appeared more circular.

Paul formed as “tropical cyclone 22P” late in the day (EDT) on March 27, about 340 miles east of Darwin, Australia, near 12.9 South and 136.6 East. By March 28, cyclone 22P had intensified and been renamed Tropical Storm Paul.

The small island of Groote Eylandt lies to the center of Tropical Storm Paul, and residents there have already been experiencing heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and strong winds.

Paul’s center was crossing the coast just south of Cape Shield today near 13.4 degrees South and 136.0 degrees East. Paul’s center is estimated to be 70 kilometers (43 miles) northwest of Alyangula and 160 kilometers (99 miles) south southwest of Nhulunbuy, moving west southwest at 4 kilometers (2.4 miles) per hour.